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Zejtun Corinthians vs Xewkija Tigers — FA Trophy 2020

Zejtun Corinthians
Zejtun Corinthians
FT
7 – 1
HT: 4 – 0
Xewkija Tigers
Xewkija Tigers
2/10/2022FA TrophyFA Trophy · 1st RoundVictor Tedesco Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zejtun Corinthians51%
×Draw20%
Xewkija Tigers30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zejtun Corinthians
2.42
Xewkija Tigers
1.83

Zejtun Corinthians creates 32% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

creates per match

Zejtun Corinthians
2.67
Xewkija Tigers
1.00

allows per match

Zejtun Corinthians
2.67
Xewkija Tigers
2.17

finishing

Zejtun Corinthians+0.00on par
Xewkija Tigers+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

76%Yes
  • Yes76
  • No24

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zejtun Corinthians ↓

Xewkija Tigers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–26%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–16%
3–26%
3–33%
3–42%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
61%39%4.5
41%59%

Double chance

Zejtun Corinthians or draw
70%
Zejtun Corinthians or Xewkija Tigers
80%
Draw or Xewkija Tigers
49%

Winning margin

Zejtun Corinthians wins by 2+
31%
Xewkija Tigers wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zejtun Corinthians 1+ goals
91%
Zejtun Corinthians 2+ goals
69%
Zejtun Corinthians 3+ goals
43%
Xewkija Tigers 1+ goals
84%
Xewkija Tigers 2+ goals
54%
Xewkija Tigers 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Zejtun Corinthians (draw refunded)
63%
Xewkija Tigers (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
70%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zejtun Corinthians at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Xewkija Tigers away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zejtun Corinthians attack 2.67 + Xewkija Tigers defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 2.42

Xewkija Tigers attack 1.00 + Zejtun Corinthians defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zejtun Corinthians scores more
51%
level
20%
Xewkija Tigers scores more
30%

Zejtun Corinthians at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zejtun Corinthians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zejtun Corinthians vs Xewkija Tigers

Zejtun Corinthians beat Xewkija Tigers 7-1 in FA Trophy on February 10, 2022.

The match was played at Victor Tedesco Stadium in Hamrun.