Zejtun Corinthians 0–5 Marsaxlokk: Result & Stats

Zejtun Corinthians

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Marsaxlokk

1/14/2023

FA Trophy · 1st RoundMFA Centenary Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zejtun Corinthians34%

×Draw21%

Marsaxlokk45%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zejtun CorinthiansExpected goals in this matchMarsaxlokk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.83

2.12

Zejtun Corinthians

1.83

Marsaxlokk

2.12

Marsaxlokk creates 16% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 7 away

2.67

creates per match

1.57

2.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Zejtun Corinthians

2.67

Marsaxlokk

1.57

allows per match

Zejtun Corinthians

2.67

Marsaxlokk

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zejtun Corinthians+0.00on par

Marsaxlokk+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zejtun Corinthians ↓

Marsaxlokk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Zejtun Corinthians or draw

55%

Zejtun Corinthians or Marsaxlokk

79%

Draw or Marsaxlokk

66%

Winning margin

Zejtun Corinthians wins by 2+

17%

Marsaxlokk wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Zejtun Corinthians 1+ goals

84%

Zejtun Corinthians 2+ goals

54%

Zejtun Corinthians 3+ goals

28%

Marsaxlokk 1+ goals

88%

Marsaxlokk 2+ goals

62%

Marsaxlokk 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Zejtun Corinthians (draw refunded)

43%

Marsaxlokk (draw refunded)

57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zejtun Corinthians at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Marsaxlokk away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zejtun Corinthians attack 2.67 + Marsaxlokk defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.83

Marsaxlokk attack 1.57 + Zejtun Corinthians defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zejtun Corinthians scores more

34%

level

21%

Marsaxlokk scores more

45%

Marsaxlokk at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Marsaxlokk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zejtun Corinthians vs Marsaxlokk

Marsaxlokk beat Zejtun Corinthians 5-0 in FA Trophy on January 14, 2023.

The match was played at MFA Centenary Stadium in Ta'Qali.

Zejtun Corinthians vs Marsaxlokk — FA Trophy 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Zejtun Corinthians vs Marsaxlokk