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Zejtun Corinthians vs Kercem Ajax — FA Trophy 2020

Zejtun Corinthians
Zejtun Corinthians
AET
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Kercem Ajax
Kercem Ajax
12/13/2023FA TrophyFA Trophy · Preliminary RoundVictor Tedesco Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zejtun Corinthians55%
×Draw17%
Kercem Ajax28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zejtun Corinthians
3.67
Kercem Ajax
2.67

Zejtun Corinthians creates 37% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 3 away

creates per match

Zejtun Corinthians
2.67
Kercem Ajax
2.67

allows per match

Zejtun Corinthians
2.67
Kercem Ajax
4.67

finishing

Zejtun Corinthians+0.00on par
Kercem Ajax+0.00on par

Total goals

95%Over
  • Over95
  • Under5

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

90%Yes
  • Yes90
  • No10

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zejtun Corinthians ↓

Kercem Ajax →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–11%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–01%
1–12%
1–23%
1–32%
1–42%
2
2–01%
2–14%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–26%
3–35%
3–43%
4
4–01%
4–14%
4–25%
4–35%
4–43%

Most likely 3–2 (6%) · grid covers 67% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
99%1%2.5
95%5%3.5
86%14%4.5
73%27%

Double chance

Zejtun Corinthians or draw
72%
Zejtun Corinthians or Kercem Ajax
83%
Draw or Kercem Ajax
45%

Winning margin

Zejtun Corinthians wins by 2+
37%
Kercem Ajax wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zejtun Corinthians 1+ goals
97%
Zejtun Corinthians 2+ goals
87%
Zejtun Corinthians 3+ goals
68%
Kercem Ajax 1+ goals
93%
Kercem Ajax 2+ goals
74%
Kercem Ajax 3+ goals
49%

Draw no bet

Zejtun Corinthians (draw refunded)
66%
Kercem Ajax (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
88%
Both score & under 3
2%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zejtun Corinthians at home — creates 2.67, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

Kercem Ajax away — creates 2.67, concedes 4.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zejtun Corinthians attack 2.67 + Kercem Ajax defence 4.67 → ÷2 → 3.67

Kercem Ajax attack 2.67 + Zejtun Corinthians defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Zejtun Corinthians scores more
55%
level
17%
Kercem Ajax scores more
28%

Zejtun Corinthians at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Zejtun Corinthians will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zejtun Corinthians vs Kercem Ajax

Zejtun Corinthians beat Kercem Ajax 3-2 in FA Trophy on December 13, 2023.

The match was played at Victor Tedesco Stadium in Hamrun.