Zebbug Rangers 0–5 Qala Saints: Result & Stats

Zebbug Rangers

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 2

Qala Saints

12/6/2025

FA Trophy · Round of 64

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Zebbug Rangers29%

×Draw22%

Qala Saints49%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zebbug RangersExpected goals in this matchQala Saints

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

2.00

Zebbug Rangers

1.50

Qala Saints

2.00

Qala Saints creates 33% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 4 away

1.50

creates per match

1.75

2.25

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Zebbug Rangers

1.50

Qala Saints

1.75

allows per match

Zebbug Rangers

2.25

Qala Saints

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zebbug Rangers+0.00on par

Qala Saints+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zebbug Rangers ↓

Qala Saints →

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Zebbug Rangers or draw

51%

Zebbug Rangers or Qala Saints

78%

Draw or Qala Saints

71%

Winning margin

Zebbug Rangers wins by 2+

13%

Qala Saints wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Zebbug Rangers 1+ goals

78%

Zebbug Rangers 2+ goals

44%

Zebbug Rangers 3+ goals

19%

Qala Saints 1+ goals

86%

Qala Saints 2+ goals

59%

Qala Saints 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Zebbug Rangers (draw refunded)

37%

Qala Saints (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Zebbug Rangers at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Qala Saints away — creates 1.75, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Zebbug Rangers attack 1.50 + Qala Saints defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.50

Qala Saints attack 1.75 + Zebbug Rangers defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zebbug Rangers scores more

29%

level

22%

Qala Saints scores more

49%

Qala Saints at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Qala Saints will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff