Zebbug Rangers 6–1 Oratory Youths: Result & Stats

Zebbug Rangers

6 – 1

HT: 4 – 1

Oratory Youths

12/7/2024

FA Trophy · Preliminary RoundSirens Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Zebbug Rangers77%

×Draw12%

Oratory Youths11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zebbug RangersExpected goals in this matchOratory Youths

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

3.75

1.46

Zebbug Rangers

3.75

Oratory Youths

1.46

Zebbug Rangers creates 157% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.50

creates per match

0.67

2.25

allows per match

6.00

creates per match

Zebbug Rangers

1.50

Oratory Youths

0.67

allows per match

Zebbug Rangers

2.25

Oratory Youths

6.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zebbug Rangers+0.00on par

Oratory Youths+0.00on par

Total goals

Over88
Under12

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes75
No25

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zebbug Rangers ↓

Oratory Youths →

0–01%

0–11%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1–02%

1–13%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2–04%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–18%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4–05%

4–17%

4–25%

4–33%

4–41%

Most likely 3–1 (8%) · grid covers 73% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

96%4%2.5

88%12%3.5

74%26%4.5

56%44%

Double chance

Zebbug Rangers or draw

89%

Zebbug Rangers or Oratory Youths

88%

Draw or Oratory Youths

23%

Winning margin

Zebbug Rangers wins by 2+

59%

Oratory Youths wins by 2+

Team goals

Zebbug Rangers 1+ goals

97%

Zebbug Rangers 2+ goals

88%

Zebbug Rangers 3+ goals

70%

Oratory Youths 1+ goals

77%

Oratory Youths 2+ goals

43%

Oratory Youths 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Zebbug Rangers (draw refunded)

87%

Oratory Youths (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Zebbug Rangers at home — creates 1.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Oratory Youths away — creates 0.67, concedes 6.00 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Zebbug Rangers attack 1.50 + Oratory Youths defence 6.00 → ÷2 → 3.75

Oratory Youths attack 0.67 + Zebbug Rangers defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 77%?"

Zebbug Rangers scores more

77%

level

12%

Oratory Youths scores more

11%

Zebbug Rangers at 77% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 77% does not mean "Zebbug Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff