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Zebau Bad Ischl vs Pregarten — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Zebau Bad Ischl
Zebau Bad Ischl
PST
15:00
Pregarten
Pregarten
6/13/2020Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 30ÖKO-BOX Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Zebau Bad Ischl50%
×Draw22%
Pregarten29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zebau Bad Ischl
2.00
Pregarten
1.48

Zebau Bad Ischl creates 35% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 89 away

creates per match

Zebau Bad Ischl
2.24
Pregarten
1.09

allows per match

Zebau Bad Ischl
1.86
Pregarten
1.75

finishing

Zebau Bad Ischl+0.00on par
Pregarten+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zebau Bad Ischl ↓

Pregarten →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Zebau Bad Ischl or draw
71%
Zebau Bad Ischl or Pregarten
78%
Draw or Pregarten
50%

Winning margin

Zebau Bad Ischl wins by 2+
28%
Pregarten wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zebau Bad Ischl 1+ goals
86%
Zebau Bad Ischl 2+ goals
59%
Zebau Bad Ischl 3+ goals
32%
Pregarten 1+ goals
77%
Pregarten 2+ goals
43%
Pregarten 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Zebau Bad Ischl (draw refunded)
63%
Pregarten (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zebau Bad Ischl at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.86 · 29 matches

Pregarten away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.75 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zebau Bad Ischl attack 2.24 + Pregarten defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.00

Pregarten attack 1.09 + Zebau Bad Ischl defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zebau Bad Ischl scores more
50%
level
22%
Pregarten scores more
29%

Zebau Bad Ischl at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zebau Bad Ischl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zebau Bad Ischl face Pregarten (Landesliga - Oberosterreich)

Landesliga - Oberosterreich returns with Zebau Bad Ischl hosting Pregarten. Match starts June 13, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Zebau Bad Ischl host Pregarten at ÖKO-BOX Stadion.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.