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Pregarten vs Zebau Bad Ischl — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Pregarten
Pregarten
FT
6 – 2
Zebau Bad Ischl
Zebau Bad Ischl
11/9/2019Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 15ASKÖ Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Pregarten43%
×Draw21%
Zebau Bad Ischl36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pregarten
2.07
Zebau Bad Ischl
1.88

Pregarten creates 10% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 29 away

creates per match

Pregarten
1.59
Zebau Bad Ischl
2.14

allows per match

Pregarten
1.61
Zebau Bad Ischl
2.55

finishing

Pregarten+0.00on par
Zebau Bad Ischl+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pregarten ↓

Zebau Bad Ischl →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Pregarten or draw
64%
Pregarten or Zebau Bad Ischl
79%
Draw or Zebau Bad Ischl
57%

Winning margin

Pregarten wins by 2+
24%
Zebau Bad Ischl wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Pregarten 1+ goals
87%
Pregarten 2+ goals
61%
Pregarten 3+ goals
34%
Zebau Bad Ischl 1+ goals
85%
Zebau Bad Ischl 2+ goals
56%
Zebau Bad Ischl 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

Pregarten (draw refunded)
55%
Zebau Bad Ischl (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pregarten at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.61 · 88 matches

Zebau Bad Ischl away — creates 2.14, concedes 2.55 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pregarten attack 1.59 + Zebau Bad Ischl defence 2.55 → ÷2 → 2.07

Zebau Bad Ischl attack 2.14 + Pregarten defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Pregarten scores more
43%
level
21%
Zebau Bad Ischl scores more
36%

Pregarten at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Pregarten will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Pregarten vs Zebau Bad Ischl

Pregarten beat Zebau Bad Ischl 6-2 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on November 9, 2019.

The match was played at ASKÖ Stadion in Pregarten.