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Zebau Bad Ischl vs Oedt — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Zebau Bad Ischl
Zebau Bad Ischl
FT
2 – 1
Oedt
Oedt
8/15/2020Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 1ÖKO-BOX Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Zebau Bad Ischl35%
×Draw21%
Oedt43%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zebau Bad Ischl
1.77
Oedt
1.98

Oedt creates 12% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 73 away

creates per match

Zebau Bad Ischl
2.24
Oedt
2.10

allows per match

Zebau Bad Ischl
1.86
Oedt
1.30

finishing

Zebau Bad Ischl+0.00on par
Oedt+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zebau Bad Ischl ↓

Oedt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–15%
0–25%
0–33%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–28%
1–35%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Zebau Bad Ischl or draw
57%
Zebau Bad Ischl or Oedt
79%
Draw or Oedt
65%

Winning margin

Zebau Bad Ischl wins by 2+
18%
Oedt wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Zebau Bad Ischl 1+ goals
83%
Zebau Bad Ischl 2+ goals
53%
Zebau Bad Ischl 3+ goals
26%
Oedt 1+ goals
86%
Oedt 2+ goals
59%
Oedt 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Zebau Bad Ischl (draw refunded)
45%
Oedt (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zebau Bad Ischl at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.86 · 29 matches

Oedt away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.30 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zebau Bad Ischl attack 2.24 + Oedt defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.77

Oedt attack 2.10 + Zebau Bad Ischl defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Zebau Bad Ischl scores more
35%
level
21%
Oedt scores more
43%

Oedt at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Oedt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zebau Bad Ischl vs Oedt

Zebau Bad Ischl beat Oedt 2-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on August 15, 2020.

The match was played at ÖKO-BOX Stadion in Bad Ischl.