Zebau Bad Ischl 3–1 Mondsee: Result & Stats

Zebau Bad Ischl

FT

3 – 1

Mondsee

9/10/2021

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 6ÖKO-BOX Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Zebau Bad Ischl44%

×Draw21%

Mondsee35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zebau Bad IschlExpected goals in this matchMondsee

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.04

1.79

Zebau Bad Ischl

2.04

Mondsee

1.79

Zebau Bad Ischl creates 14% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 90 away

2.24

creates per match

1.71

1.86

allows per match

1.83

creates per match

Zebau Bad Ischl

2.24

Mondsee

1.71

allows per match

Zebau Bad Ischl

1.86

Mondsee

1.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zebau Bad Ischl+0.00on par

Mondsee+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zebau Bad Ischl ↓

Mondsee →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Zebau Bad Ischl or draw

65%

Zebau Bad Ischl or Mondsee

79%

Draw or Mondsee

56%

Winning margin

Zebau Bad Ischl wins by 2+

25%

Mondsee wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Zebau Bad Ischl 1+ goals

87%

Zebau Bad Ischl 2+ goals

60%

Zebau Bad Ischl 3+ goals

33%

Mondsee 1+ goals

83%

Mondsee 2+ goals

53%

Mondsee 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Zebau Bad Ischl (draw refunded)

56%

Mondsee (draw refunded)

44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zebau Bad Ischl at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.86 · 29 matches

Mondsee away — creates 1.71, concedes 1.83 · 90 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zebau Bad Ischl attack 2.24 + Mondsee defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 2.04

Mondsee attack 1.71 + Zebau Bad Ischl defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Zebau Bad Ischl scores more

44%

level

21%

Mondsee scores more

35%

Zebau Bad Ischl at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Zebau Bad Ischl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff