Zebau Bad Ischl vs Grün Weiß Micheldorf — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 29+ matches
Zebau Bad Ischl51%
Grün Weiß Micheldorf29%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Zebau Bad Ischl creates 35% more chances
Season form · 29 home / 89 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over73
- Under27
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes71
- No29
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Zebau Bad Ischl ↓
Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Zebau Bad Ischl at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.86 · 29 matches
Grün Weiß Micheldorf away — creates 1.36, concedes 2.12 · 89 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Zebau Bad Ischl attack 2.24 + Grün Weiß Micheldorf defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.18
Grün Weiß Micheldorf attack 1.36 + Zebau Bad Ischl defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.61
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 51%?"
Zebau Bad Ischl at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 51% does not mean "Zebau Bad Ischl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Probable lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff
St. Martin i.M.
Union Edelweiß
SV Wallern
Weißkirchen / Allhaming
Oedt
MondseeZebau Bad Ischl
PregartenGrün Weiß Micheldorf
Donau Linz
Union St. Florian
St. Valentin
Friedburg / Pöndorf
Bad Schallerbach
Pöttinger Grieskirchen
Union PergIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Zebau Bad Ischl host Grün Weiß Micheldorf on Saturday, 25 September 2021 at 14:00. The match is part of the Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019/2020 season.
Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Zebau Bad Ischl 2–3 Grün Weiß Micheldorf
Grün Weiß Micheldorf beat Zebau Bad Ischl 3-2 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on September 25, 2021.
The match was played at ÖKO-BOX Stadion in Bad Ischl.