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Zebau Bad Ischl vs Donau Linz — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Zebau Bad Ischl
Zebau Bad Ischl
FT
3 – 1
Donau Linz
Donau Linz
8/29/2020Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 3ÖKO-BOX Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 29+ matches

Zebau Bad Ischl61%
×Draw18%
Donau Linz21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zebau Bad Ischl
2.56
Donau Linz
1.45

Zebau Bad Ischl creates 77% more chances

Season form · 29 home / 30 away

creates per match

Zebau Bad Ischl
2.24
Donau Linz
1.03

allows per match

Zebau Bad Ischl
1.86
Donau Linz
2.87

finishing

Zebau Bad Ischl+0.00on par
Donau Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zebau Bad Ischl ↓

Donau Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
56%44%4.5
36%64%

Double chance

Zebau Bad Ischl or draw
79%
Zebau Bad Ischl or Donau Linz
82%
Draw or Donau Linz
39%

Winning margin

Zebau Bad Ischl wins by 2+
40%
Donau Linz wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zebau Bad Ischl 1+ goals
92%
Zebau Bad Ischl 2+ goals
72%
Zebau Bad Ischl 3+ goals
46%
Donau Linz 1+ goals
77%
Donau Linz 2+ goals
42%
Donau Linz 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Zebau Bad Ischl (draw refunded)
75%
Donau Linz (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
64%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zebau Bad Ischl at home — creates 2.24, concedes 1.86 · 29 matches

Donau Linz away — creates 1.03, concedes 2.87 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zebau Bad Ischl attack 2.24 + Donau Linz defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.56

Donau Linz attack 1.03 + Zebau Bad Ischl defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Zebau Bad Ischl scores more
61%
level
18%
Donau Linz scores more
21%

Zebau Bad Ischl at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Zebau Bad Ischl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Zebau Bad Ischl 3–1 Donau Linz

Zebau Bad Ischl beat Donau Linz 3-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at ÖKO-BOX Stadion in Bad Ischl.