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Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Vysočina Jihlava II — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Ždírec nad Doubravou
Ždírec nad Doubravou
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
8/6/20224. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 1Stadion SK Tatran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou36%
×Draw24%
Vysočina Jihlava II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.46
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 19 away

creates per match

Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.59
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.00

allows per match

Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.07
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.32

finishing

Ždírec nad Doubravou+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ždírec nad Doubravou ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Ždírec nad Doubravou or draw
60%
Ždírec nad Doubravou or Vysočina Jihlava II
76%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II
64%

Winning margin

Ždírec nad Doubravou wins by 2+
17%
Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Ždírec nad Doubravou 1+ goals
77%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 2+ goals
43%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 3+ goals
18%
Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
79%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
45%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Ždírec nad Doubravou (draw refunded)
48%
Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ždírec nad Doubravou at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.07 · 83 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ždírec nad Doubravou attack 1.59 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.46

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 2.00 + Ždírec nad Doubravou defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Ždírec nad Doubravou scores more
36%
level
24%
Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
40%

Vysočina Jihlava II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Ždírec nad Doubravou 1–3 Vysočina Jihlava II

Vysočina Jihlava II beat Ždírec nad Doubravou 3-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on August 6, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion SK Tatran in Ždírec nad Doubravou.