Ždírec nad Doubravou 7–0 Slavoj Polná

Ždírec nad Doubravou

FT

7 – 0

HT: 5 – 0

Slavoj Polná

5/15/2022

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 22Stadion SK Tatran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou68%

×Draw18%

Slavoj Polná15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ždírec nad DoubravouExpected goals in this matchSlavoj Polná

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.40

1.02

Ždírec nad Doubravou

2.40

Slavoj Polná

1.02

Ždírec nad Doubravou creates 135% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 54 away

1.59

creates per match

0.96

1.07

allows per match

3.20

creates per match

Ždírec nad Doubravou

1.59

Slavoj Polná

0.96

allows per match

Ždírec nad Doubravou

1.07

Slavoj Polná

3.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ždírec nad Doubravou+0.00on par

Slavoj Polná+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ždírec nad Doubravou ↓

Slavoj Polná →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Ždírec nad Doubravou or draw

85%

Ždírec nad Doubravou or Slavoj Polná

82%

Draw or Slavoj Polná

32%

Winning margin

Ždírec nad Doubravou wins by 2+

45%

Slavoj Polná wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ždírec nad Doubravou 1+ goals

91%

Ždírec nad Doubravou 2+ goals

69%

Ždírec nad Doubravou 3+ goals

42%

Slavoj Polná 1+ goals

64%

Slavoj Polná 2+ goals

27%

Slavoj Polná 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Ždírec nad Doubravou (draw refunded)

82%

Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)

18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ždírec nad Doubravou at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.07 · 83 matches

Slavoj Polná away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.20 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ždírec nad Doubravou attack 1.59 + Slavoj Polná defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.40

Slavoj Polná attack 0.96 + Ždírec nad Doubravou defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Ždírec nad Doubravou scores more

68%

level

18%

Slavoj Polná scores more

15%

Ždírec nad Doubravou at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Ždírec nad Doubravou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff