Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Bystřice nad Pernštejnem — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Ždírec nad Doubravou
Ždírec nad Doubravou
FT
1 – 2
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
10/3/20214. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 10Stadion SK Tatran

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Ždírec nad Doubravou59%
×Draw21%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ždírec nad Doubravou
2.10
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.13

Ždírec nad Doubravou creates 86% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 37 away

creates per match

Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.59
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
1.19

allows per match

Ždírec nad Doubravou
1.07
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
2.62

finishing

Ždírec nad Doubravou+0.00on par
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ždírec nad Doubravou ↓

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Ždírec nad Doubravou or draw
80%
Ždírec nad Doubravou or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
79%
Draw or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem
41%

Winning margin

Ždírec nad Doubravou wins by 2+
36%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ždírec nad Doubravou 1+ goals
88%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 2+ goals
62%
Ždírec nad Doubravou 3+ goals
35%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals
68%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals
31%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Ždírec nad Doubravou (draw refunded)
75%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ždírec nad Doubravou at home — creates 1.59, concedes 1.07 · 83 matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ždírec nad Doubravou attack 1.59 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.10

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.19 + Ždírec nad Doubravou defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Ždírec nad Doubravou scores more
59%
level
21%
Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more
20%

Ždírec nad Doubravou at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Ždírec nad Doubravou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ždírec nad Doubravou vs Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem beat Ždírec nad Doubravou 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on October 3, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion SK Tatran in Ždírec nad Doubravou.