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Žďár nad Sázavou vs Vysočina Jihlava II — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Žďár nad Sázavou
Žďár nad Sázavou
PST
15:00
Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
6/14/20204. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 14Stadion Bouchalky (Žďár nad Sázavou)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Žďár nad Sázavou37%
×Draw23%
Vysočina Jihlava II40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žďár nad Sázavou
1.63
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 81 home / 19 away

creates per match

Žďár nad Sázavou
1.93
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.00

allows per match

Žďár nad Sázavou
1.38
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.32

finishing

Žďár nad Sázavou+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žďár nad Sázavou ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Žďár nad Sázavou or draw
60%
Žďár nad Sázavou or Vysočina Jihlava II
77%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II
63%

Winning margin

Žďár nad Sázavou wins by 2+
18%
Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Žďár nad Sázavou 1+ goals
80%
Žďár nad Sázavou 2+ goals
48%
Žďár nad Sázavou 3+ goals
22%
Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
82%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
50%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Žďár nad Sázavou (draw refunded)
48%
Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žďár nad Sázavou at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.38 · 81 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žďár nad Sázavou attack 1.93 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.63

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 2.00 + Žďár nad Sázavou defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Žďár nad Sázavou scores more
37%
level
23%
Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
40%

Vysočina Jihlava II at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Žďár nad Sázavou host Vysočina Jihlava II

June 14, 2020: Žďár nad Sázavou take on Vysočina Jihlava II in 4. liga - Divizie D. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Žďár nad Sázavou host Vysočina Jihlava II at Stadion Bouchalky (Žďár nad Sázavou).

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.