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Vysočina Jihlava II vs Žďár nad Sázavou — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
FT
3 – 2
Žďár nad Sázavou
Žďár nad Sázavou
11/3/20194. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 1Tréninkový areál v ulici Na Stoupách (Jihlava)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Vysočina Jihlava II55%
×Draw21%
Žďár nad Sázavou25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.20
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.42

Vysočina Jihlava II creates 55% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 84 away

creates per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
2.50
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.54

allows per match

Vysočina Jihlava II
1.30
Žďár nad Sázavou
1.90

finishing

Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par
Žďár nad Sázavou+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Vysočina Jihlava II ↓

Žďár nad Sázavou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Vysočina Jihlava II or draw
75%
Vysočina Jihlava II or Žďár nad Sázavou
79%
Draw or Žďár nad Sázavou
45%

Winning margin

Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
33%
Žďár nad Sázavou wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
89%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
64%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
37%
Žďár nad Sázavou 1+ goals
76%
Žďár nad Sázavou 2+ goals
41%
Žďár nad Sázavou 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
69%
Žďár nad Sázavou (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Vysočina Jihlava II at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.30 · 20 matches

Žďár nad Sázavou away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 2.50 + Žďár nad Sázavou defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 2.20

Žďár nad Sázavou attack 1.54 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
55%
level
21%
Žďár nad Sázavou scores more
25%

Vysočina Jihlava II at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Vysočina Jihlava II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Vysočina Jihlava II 3–2 Žďár nad Sázavou

Vysočina Jihlava II beat Žďár nad Sázavou 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie D on November 3, 2019.

The match was played at Tréninkový areál v ulici Na Stoupách (Jihlava).