Žďár nad Sázavou 3–0 Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

Žďár nad Sázavou

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

5/1/2022

4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 20Stadion Bouchalky

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Žďár nad Sázavou59%

×Draw20%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem21%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Žďár nad SázavouExpected goals in this matchBystřice nad Pernštejnem

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.28

Žďár nad Sázavou

2.27

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

1.28

Žďár nad Sázavou creates 77% more chances

Season form · 81 home / 37 away

1.93

creates per match

1.19

1.38

allows per match

2.62

creates per match

Žďár nad Sázavou

1.93

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

1.19

allows per match

Žďár nad Sázavou

1.38

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

2.62

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Žďár nad Sázavou+0.00on par

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žďár nad Sázavou ↓

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–18%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Žďár nad Sázavou or draw

79%

Žďár nad Sázavou or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

80%

Draw or Bystřice nad Pernštejnem

41%

Winning margin

Žďár nad Sázavou wins by 2+

37%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Žďár nad Sázavou 1+ goals

90%

Žďár nad Sázavou 2+ goals

66%

Žďár nad Sázavou 3+ goals

39%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 1+ goals

72%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 2+ goals

37%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Žďár nad Sázavou (draw refunded)

74%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žďár nad Sázavou at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.38 · 81 matches

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem away — creates 1.19, concedes 2.62 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žďár nad Sázavou attack 1.93 + Bystřice nad Pernštejnem defence 2.62 → ÷2 → 2.27

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem attack 1.19 + Žďár nad Sázavou defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Žďár nad Sázavou scores more

59%

level

20%

Bystřice nad Pernštejnem scores more

21%

Žďár nad Sázavou at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Žďár nad Sázavou will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff