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Zbuzany vs Viktoria Plzeň II — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Zbuzany
Zbuzany
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Viktoria Plzeň II
Viktoria Plzeň II
10/15/20223. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 11Stadion FK Zbuzany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zbuzany41%
×Draw23%
Viktoria Plzeň II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbuzany
1.68
Viktoria Plzeň II
1.54

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 85 away

creates per match

Zbuzany
1.80
Viktoria Plzeň II
1.68

allows per match

Zbuzany
1.40
Viktoria Plzeň II
1.56

finishing

Zbuzany+0.00on par
Viktoria Plzeň II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbuzany ↓

Viktoria Plzeň II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zbuzany or draw
65%
Zbuzany or Viktoria Plzeň II
77%
Draw or Viktoria Plzeň II
59%

Winning margin

Zbuzany wins by 2+
21%
Viktoria Plzeň II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Zbuzany 1+ goals
81%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
50%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
24%
Viktoria Plzeň II 1+ goals
79%
Viktoria Plzeň II 2+ goals
45%
Viktoria Plzeň II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Zbuzany (draw refunded)
54%
Viktoria Plzeň II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbuzany at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Viktoria Plzeň II away — creates 1.68, concedes 1.56 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbuzany attack 1.80 + Viktoria Plzeň II defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Viktoria Plzeň II attack 1.68 + Zbuzany defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Zbuzany scores more
41%
level
23%
Viktoria Plzeň II scores more
35%

Zbuzany at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Zbuzany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zbuzany vs Viktoria Plzeň II

Zbuzany beat Viktoria Plzeň II 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on October 15, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Zbuzany in Zbuzany.