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Zbuzany vs Teplice II — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Zbuzany
Zbuzany
CANC
08:15
Teplice II
Teplice II
4/3/20213. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 10Stadion FK Zbuzany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zbuzany53%
×Draw23%
Teplice II23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbuzany
1.77
Teplice II
1.08

Zbuzany creates 64% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 80 away

creates per match

Zbuzany
1.53
Teplice II
1.27

allows per match

Zbuzany
0.89
Teplice II
2.02

finishing

Zbuzany+0.00on par
Teplice II+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbuzany ↓

Teplice II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zbuzany or draw
77%
Zbuzany or Teplice II
77%
Draw or Teplice II
47%

Winning margin

Zbuzany wins by 2+
30%
Teplice II wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zbuzany 1+ goals
83%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
53%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
26%
Teplice II 1+ goals
66%
Teplice II 2+ goals
29%
Teplice II 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zbuzany (draw refunded)
70%
Teplice II (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbuzany at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Teplice II away — creates 1.27, concedes 2.02 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbuzany attack 1.53 + Teplice II defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 1.77

Teplice II attack 1.27 + Zbuzany defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zbuzany scores more
53%
level
23%
Teplice II scores more
23%

Zbuzany at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zbuzany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zbuzany vs Teplice II — Match Preview

Zbuzany face Teplice II on April 3, 2021 in this 3. liga - CFL B fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Zbuzany host Teplice II at Stadion FK Zbuzany.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.