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Zbuzany vs Písek — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Zbuzany
Zbuzany
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Písek
Písek
3/11/20233. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 17Hřiště SK Motorlet UMT

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zbuzany48%
×Draw23%
Písek29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbuzany
1.85
Písek
1.38

Zbuzany creates 34% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

creates per match

Zbuzany
1.80
Písek
1.36

allows per match

Zbuzany
1.40
Písek
1.90

finishing

Zbuzany+0.00on par
Písek+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbuzany ↓

Písek →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zbuzany or draw
71%
Zbuzany or Písek
77%
Draw or Písek
52%

Winning margin

Zbuzany wins by 2+
27%
Písek wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zbuzany 1+ goals
84%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
55%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
28%
Písek 1+ goals
75%
Písek 2+ goals
40%
Písek 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Zbuzany (draw refunded)
63%
Písek (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbuzany at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Písek away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.90 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbuzany attack 1.80 + Písek defence 1.90 → ÷2 → 1.85

Písek attack 1.36 + Zbuzany defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zbuzany scores more
48%
level
23%
Písek scores more
29%

Zbuzany at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zbuzany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zbuzany vs Písek

Písek beat Zbuzany 1-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on March 11, 2023.

The match was played at Hřiště SK Motorlet UMT in Praha.