Zbuzany 0–1 Motorlet Praha: Result & Stats

Zbuzany

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Motorlet Praha

6/9/2023

3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 30Stadion FK Zbuzany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zbuzany45%

×Draw24%

Motorlet Praha31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZbuzanyExpected goals in this matchMotorlet Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.35

Zbuzany

1.67

Motorlet Praha

1.35

Zbuzany creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 84 away

1.80

creates per match

1.30

1.40

allows per match

1.54

creates per match

Zbuzany

1.80

Motorlet Praha

1.30

allows per match

Zbuzany

1.40

Motorlet Praha

1.54

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zbuzany+0.00on par

Motorlet Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbuzany ↓

Motorlet Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Zbuzany or draw

69%

Zbuzany or Motorlet Praha

76%

Draw or Motorlet Praha

55%

Winning margin

Zbuzany wins by 2+

23%

Motorlet Praha wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Zbuzany 1+ goals

81%

Zbuzany 2+ goals

50%

Zbuzany 3+ goals

23%

Motorlet Praha 1+ goals

74%

Motorlet Praha 2+ goals

39%

Motorlet Praha 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Zbuzany (draw refunded)

59%

Motorlet Praha (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbuzany at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Motorlet Praha away — creates 1.30, concedes 1.54 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbuzany attack 1.80 + Motorlet Praha defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.67

Motorlet Praha attack 1.30 + Zbuzany defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.35

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Zbuzany scores more

45%

level

24%

Motorlet Praha scores more

31%

Zbuzany at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Zbuzany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff