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Zbuzany vs Karlovy Vary — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Zbuzany
Zbuzany
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Karlovy Vary
Karlovy Vary
5/27/20233. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 28Stadion FK Zbuzany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zbuzany51%
×Draw23%
Karlovy Vary26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbuzany
1.81
Karlovy Vary
1.23

Zbuzany creates 47% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 52 away

creates per match

Zbuzany
1.80
Karlovy Vary
1.06

allows per match

Zbuzany
1.40
Karlovy Vary
1.81

finishing

Zbuzany+0.00on par
Karlovy Vary+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbuzany ↓

Karlovy Vary →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zbuzany or draw
74%
Zbuzany or Karlovy Vary
77%
Draw or Karlovy Vary
49%

Winning margin

Zbuzany wins by 2+
28%
Karlovy Vary wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zbuzany 1+ goals
84%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
54%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
27%
Karlovy Vary 1+ goals
71%
Karlovy Vary 2+ goals
35%
Karlovy Vary 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zbuzany (draw refunded)
66%
Karlovy Vary (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbuzany at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Karlovy Vary away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.81 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbuzany attack 1.80 + Karlovy Vary defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.81

Karlovy Vary attack 1.06 + Zbuzany defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Zbuzany scores more
51%
level
23%
Karlovy Vary scores more
26%

Zbuzany at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Zbuzany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - CFL A: Zbuzany 0–3 Karlovy Vary

Karlovy Vary beat Zbuzany 3-0 in 3. liga - CFL A on May 27, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Zbuzany in Zbuzany.