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Zbuzany vs Chlumec nad Cidlinou — 3. liga - CFL B 2020

Zbuzany
Zbuzany
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
5/21/20223. liga - CFL B3. liga - CFL B · ČFL B - 26Stadion FK Zbuzany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zbuzany49%
×Draw24%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbuzany
1.69
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.17

Zbuzany creates 44% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 65 away

creates per match

Zbuzany
1.53
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.45

allows per match

Zbuzany
0.89
Chlumec nad Cidlinou
1.85

finishing

Zbuzany+0.00on par
Chlumec nad Cidlinou+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbuzany ↓

Chlumec nad Cidlinou →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zbuzany or draw
74%
Zbuzany or Chlumec nad Cidlinou
76%
Draw or Chlumec nad Cidlinou
51%

Winning margin

Zbuzany wins by 2+
26%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zbuzany 1+ goals
82%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
50%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
24%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 1+ goals
69%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 2+ goals
33%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Zbuzany (draw refunded)
65%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbuzany at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.89 · 19 matches

Chlumec nad Cidlinou away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.85 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbuzany attack 1.53 + Chlumec nad Cidlinou defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.69

Chlumec nad Cidlinou attack 1.45 + Zbuzany defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zbuzany scores more
49%
level
24%
Chlumec nad Cidlinou scores more
26%

Zbuzany at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zbuzany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zbuzany vs Chlumec nad Cidlinou

Zbuzany beat Chlumec nad Cidlinou 3-0 in 3. liga - CFL B on May 21, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion FK Zbuzany in Zbuzany.