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Zbuzany vs České Budějovice II — 3. liga - CFL A 2019

Zbuzany
Zbuzany
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 3
České Budějovice II
České Budějovice II
5/6/20233. liga - CFL A3. liga - CFL A · ČFL A - 25Stadion FK Zbuzany

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zbuzany46%
×Draw22%
České Budějovice II32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbuzany
1.94
České Budějovice II
1.57

Zbuzany creates 24% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 61 away

creates per match

Zbuzany
1.80
České Budějovice II
1.75

allows per match

Zbuzany
1.40
České Budějovice II
2.08

finishing

Zbuzany+0.00on par
České Budějovice II+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbuzany ↓

České Budějovice II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Zbuzany or draw
68%
Zbuzany or České Budějovice II
78%
Draw or České Budějovice II
54%

Winning margin

Zbuzany wins by 2+
26%
České Budějovice II wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Zbuzany 1+ goals
86%
Zbuzany 2+ goals
58%
Zbuzany 3+ goals
30%
České Budějovice II 1+ goals
79%
České Budějovice II 2+ goals
46%
České Budějovice II 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

Zbuzany (draw refunded)
60%
České Budějovice II (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbuzany at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

České Budějovice II away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.08 · 61 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbuzany attack 1.80 + České Budějovice II defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.94

České Budějovice II attack 1.75 + Zbuzany defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zbuzany scores more
46%
level
22%
České Budějovice II scores more
32%

Zbuzany at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zbuzany will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zbuzany vs České Budějovice II

České Budějovice II beat Zbuzany 3-2 in 3. liga - CFL A on May 6, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Zbuzany in Zbuzany.