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Zbrojovka Brno vs Vyškov — FNL 2019

Zbrojovka Brno
Zbrojovka Brno
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
Vyškov
Vyškov
4/5/2025FNLFNL · Round 21ADAX INVEST Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno48%
×Draw25%
Vyškov26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbrojovka Brno
1.58
Vyškov
1.10

Zbrojovka Brno creates 44% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 60 away

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno
1.95
Vyškov
1.17

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno
1.04
Vyškov
1.22

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno+0.00on par
Vyškov+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno ↓

Vyškov →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno or draw
74%
Zbrojovka Brno or Vyškov
75%
Draw or Vyškov
52%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno wins by 2+
25%
Vyškov wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno 1+ goals
79%
Zbrojovka Brno 2+ goals
47%
Zbrojovka Brno 3+ goals
21%
Vyškov 1+ goals
67%
Vyškov 2+ goals
30%
Vyškov 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno (draw refunded)
65%
Vyškov (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.04 · 75 matches

Vyškov away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.22 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.95 + Vyškov defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.58

Vyškov attack 1.17 + Zbrojovka Brno defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zbrojovka Brno scores more
48%
level
25%
Vyškov scores more
26%

Zbrojovka Brno at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zbrojovka Brno vs Vyškov

Vyškov beat Zbrojovka Brno 2-1 in FNL on April 5, 2025.

The match was played at ADAX INVEST Arena in Brno.