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Zbrojovka Brno vs Táborsko — FNL 2019

Zbrojovka Brno
Zbrojovka Brno
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Táborsko
Táborsko
3/15/2025FNLFNL · Round 19ADAX INVEST Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno50%
×Draw25%
Táborsko25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbrojovka Brno
1.65
Táborsko
1.09

Zbrojovka Brno creates 51% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 88 away

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno
1.95
Táborsko
1.15

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno
1.04
Táborsko
1.34

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno+0.00on par
Táborsko+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno ↓

Táborsko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno or draw
75%
Zbrojovka Brno or Táborsko
75%
Draw or Táborsko
50%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno wins by 2+
27%
Táborsko wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno 1+ goals
81%
Zbrojovka Brno 2+ goals
49%
Zbrojovka Brno 3+ goals
23%
Táborsko 1+ goals
66%
Táborsko 2+ goals
30%
Táborsko 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno (draw refunded)
67%
Táborsko (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.04 · 75 matches

Táborsko away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.34 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.95 + Táborsko defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.65

Táborsko attack 1.15 + Zbrojovka Brno defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zbrojovka Brno scores more
50%
level
25%
Táborsko scores more
25%

Zbrojovka Brno at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zbrojovka Brno vs Táborsko

Táborsko beat Zbrojovka Brno 2-0 in FNL on March 15, 2025.

The match was played at ADAX INVEST Arena in Brno.