Zbrojovka Brno vs Sparta Praha

Zbrojovka Brno

Preview

18:00

Sparta Praha

7/25/2026

Czech Liga · Round 1

53%

Sparta Praha

model favours

23%23%53%

Sparta Praha score first in only 25% of matches

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

55%

over 2.5 goals

55%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno23%

×Draw23%

Sparta Praha53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zbrojovka BrnoExpected goals in this matchSparta Praha

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

1.78

Zbrojovka Brno

1.09

Sparta Praha

1.78

Sparta Praha creates 63% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 119 away

1.09

creates per match

1.82

1.74

allows per match

1.09

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno

1.09

Sparta Praha

1.82

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno

1.74

Sparta Praha

1.09

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno+0.00on par

Sparta Praha+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno ↓

Sparta Praha →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–110%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno or draw

47%

Zbrojovka Brno or Sparta Praha

77%

Draw or Sparta Praha

77%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno wins by 2+

9%

Sparta Praha wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno 1+ goals

66%

Zbrojovka Brno 2+ goals

30%

Zbrojovka Brno 3+ goals

10%

Sparta Praha 1+ goals

83%

Sparta Praha 2+ goals

53%

Sparta Praha 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno (draw refunded)

30%

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)

70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

Sparta Praha away — creates 1.82, concedes 1.09 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.09 + Sparta Praha defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.09

Sparta Praha attack 1.82 + Zbrojovka Brno defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zbrojovka Brno scores more

23%

level

23%

Sparta Praha scores more

53%

Sparta Praha at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Sparta Praha have won 4 of the last 4 meetings
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 4 meetings
Their last 4 meetings averaged 5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form

Brno

WLW

Praha

LLWW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff