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Sparta Praha vs Zbrojovka Brno — Czech Liga 2019

Sparta Praha
Sparta Praha
FT
6 – 1
HT: 6 – 1
Zbrojovka Brno
Zbrojovka Brno
5/29/2021Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 34Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Sparta Praha60%
×Draw21%
Zbrojovka Brno19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Sparta Praha
2.04
Zbrojovka Brno
1.07

Sparta Praha creates 91% more chances

Season form · 124 home / 35 away

creates per match

Sparta Praha
2.32
Zbrojovka Brno
1.06

allows per match

Sparta Praha
1.08
Zbrojovka Brno
1.77

finishing

Sparta Praha+0.00on par
Zbrojovka Brno+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Sparta Praha ↓

Zbrojovka Brno →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Sparta Praha or draw
81%
Sparta Praha or Zbrojovka Brno
79%
Draw or Zbrojovka Brno
40%

Winning margin

Sparta Praha wins by 2+
36%
Zbrojovka Brno wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Sparta Praha 1+ goals
87%
Sparta Praha 2+ goals
60%
Sparta Praha 3+ goals
33%
Zbrojovka Brno 1+ goals
66%
Zbrojovka Brno 2+ goals
29%
Zbrojovka Brno 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Sparta Praha (draw refunded)
75%
Zbrojovka Brno (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Sparta Praha at home — creates 2.32, concedes 1.08 · 124 matches

Zbrojovka Brno away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Sparta Praha attack 2.32 + Zbrojovka Brno defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.04

Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.06 + Sparta Praha defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Sparta Praha scores more
60%
level
21%
Zbrojovka Brno scores more
19%

Sparta Praha at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Sparta Praha will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Czech Liga: Sparta Praha 6–1 Zbrojovka Brno

Sparta Praha beat Zbrojovka Brno 6-1 in Czech Liga on May 29, 2021.

The match was played at Generali Česká pojišťovna Arena in Praha.