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Zbrojovka Brno vs Plzen — Czech Liga 2019

Zbrojovka Brno
Zbrojovka Brno
Preview
14:00
Plzen
Plzen
11/28/2026Czech LigaCzech Liga · Round 16
49%
Plzen
model favours
26%25%49%

Plzen have won 4 of the last 4 meetings

brightest fact of this match

1–1
likely score
51%
over 2.5 goals
53%
both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno26%
×Draw25%
Plzen49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbrojovka Brno
1.10
Plzen
1.61

Plzen creates 46% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 119 away

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno
1.09
Plzen
1.48

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno
1.74
Plzen
1.10

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno+0.00on par
Plzen+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno ↓

Plzen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–29%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–210%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno or draw
51%
Zbrojovka Brno or Plzen
75%
Draw or Plzen
74%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno wins by 2+
10%
Plzen wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno 1+ goals
67%
Zbrojovka Brno 2+ goals
30%
Zbrojovka Brno 3+ goals
10%
Plzen 1+ goals
80%
Plzen 2+ goals
48%
Plzen 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno (draw refunded)
35%
Plzen (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.74 · 34 matches

Plzen away — creates 1.48, concedes 1.10 · 119 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.09 + Plzen defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.10

Plzen attack 1.48 + Zbrojovka Brno defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zbrojovka Brno scores more
26%
level
25%
Plzen scores more
49%

Plzen at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

  • Their last 4 meetings averaged 3.5 goals

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Form
Brno
WLW
Plzen
WLDDW

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zbrojovka Brno vs Plzen — Match Preview

Zbrojovka Brno face Plzen on November 28, 2026 in this Czech Liga fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.