Plzen 4–1 Zbrojovka Brno: Result & Stats

Plzen

FT

4 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Zbrojovka Brno

9/27/2020

Czech Liga · Round 5Doosan Aréna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Plzen61%

×Draw21%

Zbrojovka Brno18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

PlzenExpected goals in this matchZbrojovka Brno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

0.98

Plzen

2.01

Zbrojovka Brno

0.98

Plzen creates 105% more chances

Season form · 125 home / 35 away

2.26

creates per match

1.06

0.89

allows per match

1.77

creates per match

Plzen

2.26

Zbrojovka Brno

1.06

allows per match

Plzen

0.89

Zbrojovka Brno

1.77

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Plzen+0.00on par

Zbrojovka Brno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Plzen ↓

Zbrojovka Brno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–110%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Plzen or draw

82%

Plzen or Zbrojovka Brno

79%

Draw or Zbrojovka Brno

39%

Winning margin

Plzen wins by 2+

37%

Zbrojovka Brno wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Plzen 1+ goals

87%

Plzen 2+ goals

59%

Plzen 3+ goals

32%

Zbrojovka Brno 1+ goals

62%

Zbrojovka Brno 2+ goals

26%

Zbrojovka Brno 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Plzen (draw refunded)

77%

Zbrojovka Brno (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Plzen at home — creates 2.26, concedes 0.89 · 125 matches

Zbrojovka Brno away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.77 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Plzen attack 2.26 + Zbrojovka Brno defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 2.01

Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.06 + Plzen defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Plzen scores more

61%

level

21%

Zbrojovka Brno scores more

18%

Plzen at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Plzen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff