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Zbrojovka Brno vs Chrudim — FNL 2019

Zbrojovka Brno
Zbrojovka Brno
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Chrudim
Chrudim
4/4/2026FNLFNL · Round 21

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno53%
×Draw24%
Chrudim23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbrojovka Brno
1.75
Chrudim
1.08

Zbrojovka Brno creates 62% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 104 away

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno
1.95
Chrudim
1.13

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno
1.04
Chrudim
1.56

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno+0.00on par
Chrudim+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno ↓

Chrudim →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno or draw
77%
Zbrojovka Brno or Chrudim
76%
Draw or Chrudim
47%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno wins by 2+
29%
Chrudim wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno 1+ goals
83%
Zbrojovka Brno 2+ goals
52%
Zbrojovka Brno 3+ goals
25%
Chrudim 1+ goals
66%
Chrudim 2+ goals
29%
Chrudim 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno (draw refunded)
69%
Chrudim (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.04 · 75 matches

Chrudim away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.56 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.95 + Chrudim defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.75

Chrudim attack 1.13 + Zbrojovka Brno defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Zbrojovka Brno scores more
53%
level
24%
Chrudim scores more
23%

Zbrojovka Brno at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zbrojovka Brno 2 – 0 Chrudim

Zbrojovka Brno beat Chrudim 2-0 in FNL on April 4, 2026.