Zbrojovka Brno 3–0 Artis: Result & Stats | FNL

Zbrojovka Brno

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Artis

10/27/2023

FNL · Round 14ADAX INVEST Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno47%

×Draw25%

Artis28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zbrojovka BrnoExpected goals in this matchArtis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.16

Zbrojovka Brno

1.58

Artis

1.16

Zbrojovka Brno creates 36% more chances

Season form · 75 home / 103 away

1.95

creates per match

1.28

1.04

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno

1.95

Artis

1.28

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno

1.04

Artis

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno+0.00on par

Artis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno ↓

Artis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno or draw

72%

Zbrojovka Brno or Artis

75%

Draw or Artis

53%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno wins by 2+

24%

Artis wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno 1+ goals

79%

Zbrojovka Brno 2+ goals

47%

Zbrojovka Brno 3+ goals

21%

Artis 1+ goals

69%

Artis 2+ goals

32%

Artis 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno (draw refunded)

63%

Artis (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.04 · 75 matches

Artis away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.21 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.95 + Artis defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.58

Artis attack 1.28 + Zbrojovka Brno defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Zbrojovka Brno scores more

47%

level

25%

Artis scores more

28%

Zbrojovka Brno at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff