Artis 1–4 Zbrojovka Brno: Result & Stats | FNL

Artis

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 4

Zbrojovka Brno

4/19/2025

FNL · Round 24Stadion SK Líšeň

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 75+ matches

Artis35%

×Draw25%

Zbrojovka Brno40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ArtisExpected goals in this matchZbrojovka Brno

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.43

Artis

1.33

Zbrojovka Brno

1.43

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 75 away

1.53

creates per match

1.76

1.09

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Artis

1.53

Zbrojovka Brno

1.76

allows per match

Artis

1.09

Zbrojovka Brno

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Artis+0.00on par

Zbrojovka Brno+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Artis ↓

Zbrojovka Brno →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Artis or draw

60%

Artis or Zbrojovka Brno

75%

Draw or Zbrojovka Brno

65%

Winning margin

Artis wins by 2+

16%

Zbrojovka Brno wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Artis 1+ goals

74%

Artis 2+ goals

38%

Artis 3+ goals

15%

Zbrojovka Brno 1+ goals

76%

Zbrojovka Brno 2+ goals

42%

Zbrojovka Brno 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Artis (draw refunded)

47%

Zbrojovka Brno (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Artis at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.09 · 103 matches

Zbrojovka Brno away — creates 1.76, concedes 1.13 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Artis attack 1.53 + Zbrojovka Brno defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.33

Zbrojovka Brno attack 1.76 + Artis defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.43

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Artis scores more

35%

level

25%

Zbrojovka Brno scores more

40%

Zbrojovka Brno at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff