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Zbrojovka Brno U19 vs Karviná U19 — 1. Liga U19 2020

Zbrojovka Brno U19
Zbrojovka Brno U19
FT
5 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Karviná U19
Karviná U19
3/2/20241. Liga U191. Liga U19 · Round 16TCM Sladovnická

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 63+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno U1957%
×Draw20%
Karviná U1923%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbrojovka Brno U19
2.27
Karviná U19
1.38

Zbrojovka Brno U19 creates 64% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 63 away

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno U19
2.26
Karviná U19
1.24

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno U19
1.52
Karviná U19
2.29

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno U19+0.00on par
Karviná U19+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno U19 ↓

Karviná U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno U19 or draw
77%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 or Karviná U19
80%
Draw or Karviná U19
43%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno U19 wins by 2+
36%
Karviná U19 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno U19 1+ goals
90%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 2+ goals
66%
Zbrojovka Brno U19 3+ goals
39%
Karviná U19 1+ goals
75%
Karviná U19 2+ goals
40%
Karviná U19 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno U19 (draw refunded)
71%
Karviná U19 (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno U19 at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.52 · 77 matches

Karviná U19 away — creates 1.24, concedes 2.29 · 63 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno U19 attack 2.26 + Karviná U19 defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.27

Karviná U19 attack 1.24 + Zbrojovka Brno U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Zbrojovka Brno U19 scores more
57%
level
20%
Karviná U19 scores more
23%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zbrojovka Brno U19 vs Karviná U19

Zbrojovka Brno U19 beat Karviná U19 5-0 in 1. Liga U19 on March 2, 2024.

The match was played at TCM Sladovnická in Brněnské Ivanovice.