Zbrojovka Brno U19 3–1 Frýdek-Místek U19

Zbrojovka Brno U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Frýdek-Místek U19

M. Soucek 86', 35' (pen)

S. Becva 26'

D. Nemec 55'

6/1/2024

1. Liga U19 · Round 29ADAX INVEST Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno U1966%

×Draw18%

Frýdek-Místek U1916%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zbrojovka Brno U19Expected goals in this matchFrýdek-Místek U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.56

1.20

Zbrojovka Brno U19

2.56

Frýdek-Místek U19

1.20

Zbrojovka Brno U19 creates 113% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 15 away

2.26

creates per match

0.87

1.52

allows per match

2.87

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno U19

2.26

Frýdek-Místek U19

0.87

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno U19

1.52

Frýdek-Místek U19

2.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno U19+0.00on par

Frýdek-Místek U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno U19 ↓

Frýdek-Místek U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–17%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno U19 or draw

84%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 or Frýdek-Místek U19

82%

Draw or Frýdek-Místek U19

34%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno U19 wins by 2+

45%

Frýdek-Místek U19 wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno U19 1+ goals

92%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 2+ goals

72%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 3+ goals

46%

Frýdek-Místek U19 1+ goals

70%

Frýdek-Místek U19 2+ goals

34%

Frýdek-Místek U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno U19 (draw refunded)

80%

Frýdek-Místek U19 (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno U19 at home — creates 2.26, concedes 1.52 · 77 matches

Frýdek-Místek U19 away — creates 0.87, concedes 2.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno U19 attack 2.26 + Frýdek-Místek U19 defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.56

Frýdek-Místek U19 attack 0.87 + Zbrojovka Brno U19 defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 66%?"

Zbrojovka Brno U19 scores more

66%

level

18%

Frýdek-Místek U19 scores more

16%

Zbrojovka Brno U19 at 66% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 66% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

S. Becva

35'

M. SoucekPenalty

55'

D. Nemec

86'

M. Soucek

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff