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Zbrojovka Brno II vs Vysočina Jihlava II — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Zbrojovka Brno II
Zbrojovka Brno II
FT
1 – 2
Vysočina Jihlava II
Vysočina Jihlava II
9/15/20194. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Round 7Městský fotbalový stadion Srbská (Brno)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno II50%
×Draw23%
Vysočina Jihlava II27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbrojovka Brno II
1.89
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.33

Zbrojovka Brno II creates 42% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 19 away

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno II
2.46
Vysočina Jihlava II
2.00

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno II
0.67
Vysočina Jihlava II
1.32

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno II+0.00on par
Vysočina Jihlava II+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno II ↓

Vysočina Jihlava II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno II or draw
73%
Zbrojovka Brno II or Vysočina Jihlava II
77%
Draw or Vysočina Jihlava II
50%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno II wins by 2+
28%
Vysočina Jihlava II wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno II 1+ goals
85%
Zbrojovka Brno II 2+ goals
56%
Zbrojovka Brno II 3+ goals
29%
Vysočina Jihlava II 1+ goals
74%
Vysočina Jihlava II 2+ goals
38%
Vysočina Jihlava II 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno II (draw refunded)
65%
Vysočina Jihlava II (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno II at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.67 · 39 matches

Vysočina Jihlava II away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.32 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno II attack 2.46 + Vysočina Jihlava II defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.89

Vysočina Jihlava II attack 2.00 + Zbrojovka Brno II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Zbrojovka Brno II scores more
50%
level
23%
Vysočina Jihlava II scores more
27%

Zbrojovka Brno II at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie D: Zbrojovka Brno II 1–2 Vysočina Jihlava II

Vysočina Jihlava II beat Zbrojovka Brno II 2-1 in 4. liga - Divizie D on September 15, 2019.

The match was played at Městský fotbalový stadion Srbská (Brno).