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Zbrojovka Brno II vs Stará Říše — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Zbrojovka Brno II
Zbrojovka Brno II
CANC
14:30
Stará Říše
Stará Říše
5/2/20214. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 18Stadion pod Pekařkou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno II72%
×Draw17%
Stará Říše11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbrojovka Brno II
2.40
Stará Říše
0.81

Zbrojovka Brno II creates 196% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 55 away

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno II
2.46
Stará Říše
0.95

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno II
0.67
Stará Říše
2.33

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno II+0.00on par
Stará Říše+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno II ↓

Stará Říše →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno II or draw
89%
Zbrojovka Brno II or Stará Říše
83%
Draw or Stará Říše
28%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno II wins by 2+
49%
Stará Říše wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno II 1+ goals
91%
Zbrojovka Brno II 2+ goals
69%
Zbrojovka Brno II 3+ goals
42%
Stará Říše 1+ goals
56%
Stará Říše 2+ goals
19%
Stará Říše 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno II (draw refunded)
87%
Stará Říše (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno II at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.67 · 39 matches

Stará Říše away — creates 0.95, concedes 2.33 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno II attack 2.46 + Stará Říše defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.40

Stará Říše attack 0.95 + Zbrojovka Brno II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Zbrojovka Brno II scores more
72%
level
17%
Stará Říše scores more
11%

Zbrojovka Brno II at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zbrojovka Brno II face Stará Říše (4. liga - Divizie D)

4. liga - Divizie D returns with Zbrojovka Brno II hosting Stará Říše. Match starts May 2, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Zbrojovka Brno II host Stará Říše at Stadion pod Pekařkou.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.