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Zbrojovka Brno II vs Slavoj Polná — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Zbrojovka Brno II
Zbrojovka Brno II
CANC
15:00
Slavoj Polná
Slavoj Polná
5/23/20214. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 21Stadion pod Pekařkou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno II78%
×Draw13%
Slavoj Polná8%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbrojovka Brno II
2.83
Slavoj Polná
0.81

Zbrojovka Brno II creates 249% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 54 away

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno II
2.46
Slavoj Polná
0.96

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno II
0.67
Slavoj Polná
3.20

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno II+0.00on par
Slavoj Polná+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno II ↓

Slavoj Polná →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–18%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–07%
4–16%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
70%30%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno II or draw
92%
Zbrojovka Brno II or Slavoj Polná
87%
Draw or Slavoj Polná
22%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno II wins by 2+
58%
Slavoj Polná wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno II 1+ goals
94%
Zbrojovka Brno II 2+ goals
77%
Zbrojovka Brno II 3+ goals
53%
Slavoj Polná 1+ goals
56%
Slavoj Polná 2+ goals
19%
Slavoj Polná 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno II (draw refunded)
91%
Slavoj Polná (draw refunded)
9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno II at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.67 · 39 matches

Slavoj Polná away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.20 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno II attack 2.46 + Slavoj Polná defence 3.20 → ÷2 → 2.83

Slavoj Polná attack 0.96 + Zbrojovka Brno II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Zbrojovka Brno II scores more
78%
level
13%
Slavoj Polná scores more
8%

Zbrojovka Brno II at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Zbrojovka Brno II face Slavoj Polná (4. liga - Divizie D)

4. liga - Divizie D returns with Zbrojovka Brno II hosting Slavoj Polná. Match starts May 23, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Zbrojovka Brno II host Slavoj Polná at Stadion pod Pekařkou.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.