Zbrojovka Brno II 3–0 HFK Olomouc: Result & Stats

Zbrojovka Brno II

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

HFK Olomouc

5/7/2023

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 21Stadion pod Pekařkou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno II69%

×Draw16%

HFK Olomouc15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Zbrojovka Brno IIExpected goals in this matchHFK Olomouc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

1.22

Zbrojovka Brno II

2.77

HFK Olomouc

1.22

Zbrojovka Brno II creates 127% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 66 away

3.08

creates per match

1.21

1.23

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno II

3.08

HFK Olomouc

1.21

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno II

1.23

HFK Olomouc

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno II+0.00on par

HFK Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno II ↓

HFK Olomouc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno II or draw

85%

Zbrojovka Brno II or HFK Olomouc

84%

Draw or HFK Olomouc

31%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno II wins by 2+

48%

HFK Olomouc wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno II 1+ goals

94%

Zbrojovka Brno II 2+ goals

76%

Zbrojovka Brno II 3+ goals

51%

HFK Olomouc 1+ goals

70%

HFK Olomouc 2+ goals

34%

HFK Olomouc 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno II (draw refunded)

83%

HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)

17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno II at home — creates 3.08, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

HFK Olomouc away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno II attack 3.08 + HFK Olomouc defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.77

HFK Olomouc attack 1.21 + Zbrojovka Brno II defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Zbrojovka Brno II scores more

69%

level

16%

HFK Olomouc scores more

15%

Zbrojovka Brno II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff