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Zbrojovka Brno II vs Havlíčkův Brod — 4. liga - Divizie D 2019

Zbrojovka Brno II
Zbrojovka Brno II
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Havlíčkův Brod
Havlíčkův Brod
11/12/20234. liga - Divizie D4. liga - Divizie D · Division D - 15Stadion pod Pekařkou

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Zbrojovka Brno II61%
×Draw21%
Havlíčkův Brod18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zbrojovka Brno II
2.04
Havlíčkův Brod
1.00

Zbrojovka Brno II creates 104% more chances

Season form · 39 home / 80 away

creates per match

Zbrojovka Brno II
2.46
Havlíčkův Brod
1.32

allows per match

Zbrojovka Brno II
0.67
Havlíčkův Brod
1.63

finishing

Zbrojovka Brno II+0.00on par
Havlíčkův Brod+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zbrojovka Brno II ↓

Havlíčkův Brod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Zbrojovka Brno II or draw
82%
Zbrojovka Brno II or Havlíčkův Brod
79%
Draw or Havlíčkův Brod
39%

Winning margin

Zbrojovka Brno II wins by 2+
37%
Havlíčkův Brod wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Zbrojovka Brno II 1+ goals
87%
Zbrojovka Brno II 2+ goals
60%
Zbrojovka Brno II 3+ goals
33%
Havlíčkův Brod 1+ goals
63%
Havlíčkův Brod 2+ goals
26%
Havlíčkův Brod 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Zbrojovka Brno II (draw refunded)
77%
Havlíčkův Brod (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zbrojovka Brno II at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.67 · 39 matches

Havlíčkův Brod away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.63 · 80 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zbrojovka Brno II attack 2.46 + Havlíčkův Brod defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 2.04

Havlíčkův Brod attack 1.32 + Zbrojovka Brno II defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Zbrojovka Brno II scores more
61%
level
21%
Havlíčkův Brod scores more
18%

Zbrojovka Brno II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Zbrojovka Brno II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zbrojovka Brno II vs Havlíčkův Brod

Zbrojovka Brno II beat Havlíčkův Brod 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie D on November 12, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion pod Pekařkou in Brno.