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Zawisza Bydgoszcz vs Unia Swarzędz — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Unia Swarzędz
Unia Swarzędz
3/28/2026III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group II - 24Stadion im. Zdzisława Krzyszkowiaka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Zawisza Bydgoszcz49%
×Draw24%
Unia Swarzędz27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
1.75
Unia Swarzędz
1.25

Zawisza Bydgoszcz creates 40% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 84 away

creates per match

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
1.98
Unia Swarzędz
1.51

allows per match

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
0.99
Unia Swarzędz
1.52

finishing

Zawisza Bydgoszcz+0.00on par
Unia Swarzędz+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zawisza Bydgoszcz ↓

Unia Swarzędz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Zawisza Bydgoszcz or draw
73%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz or Unia Swarzędz
76%
Draw or Unia Swarzędz
51%

Winning margin

Zawisza Bydgoszcz wins by 2+
27%
Unia Swarzędz wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Zawisza Bydgoszcz 1+ goals
83%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz 2+ goals
52%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz 3+ goals
25%
Unia Swarzędz 1+ goals
71%
Unia Swarzędz 2+ goals
36%
Unia Swarzędz 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Zawisza Bydgoszcz (draw refunded)
64%
Unia Swarzędz (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zawisza Bydgoszcz at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.99 · 84 matches

Unia Swarzędz away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.52 · 84 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zawisza Bydgoszcz attack 1.98 + Unia Swarzędz defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.75

Unia Swarzędz attack 1.51 + Zawisza Bydgoszcz defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Zawisza Bydgoszcz scores more
49%
level
24%
Unia Swarzędz scores more
27%

Zawisza Bydgoszcz at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Zawisza Bydgoszcz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 2: Zawisza Bydgoszcz 1–0 Unia Swarzędz

Zawisza Bydgoszcz beat Unia Swarzędz 1-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on March 28, 2026.

The match was played at Stadion im. Zdzisława Krzyszkowiaka in Bydgoszcz.