Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Zawisza Bydgoszcz vs Solec K. — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
FT
2 – 1
Solec K.
Solec K.
6/10/2023III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 33Stadion im. Zdzisława Krzyszkowiaka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Zawisza Bydgoszcz60%
×Draw21%
Solec K.19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
2.05
Solec K.
1.08

Zawisza Bydgoszcz creates 90% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 34 away

creates per match

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
1.98
Solec K.
1.18

allows per match

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
0.99
Solec K.
2.12

finishing

Zawisza Bydgoszcz+0.00on par
Solec K.+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zawisza Bydgoszcz ↓

Solec K. →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Zawisza Bydgoszcz or draw
81%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz or Solec K.
79%
Draw or Solec K.
40%

Winning margin

Zawisza Bydgoszcz wins by 2+
36%
Solec K. wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Zawisza Bydgoszcz 1+ goals
87%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz 2+ goals
61%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz 3+ goals
33%
Solec K. 1+ goals
66%
Solec K. 2+ goals
29%
Solec K. 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Zawisza Bydgoszcz (draw refunded)
75%
Solec K. (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zawisza Bydgoszcz at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.99 · 84 matches

Solec K. away — creates 1.18, concedes 2.12 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zawisza Bydgoszcz attack 1.98 + Solec K. defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.05

Solec K. attack 1.18 + Zawisza Bydgoszcz defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Zawisza Bydgoszcz scores more
60%
level
21%
Solec K. scores more
19%

Zawisza Bydgoszcz at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Zawisza Bydgoszcz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zawisza Bydgoszcz vs Solec K.

Zawisza Bydgoszcz beat Solec K. 2-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on June 10, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion im. Zdzisława Krzyszkowiaka in Bydgoszcz.