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Zawisza Bydgoszcz vs Elana Toruń — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
Zawisza Bydgoszcz
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Elana Toruń
Elana Toruń
10/18/2025III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group II - 13Stadion im. Zdzisława Krzyszkowiaka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 78+ matches

Zawisza Bydgoszcz46%
×Draw24%
Elana Toruń30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
1.63
Elana Toruń
1.27

Zawisza Bydgoszcz creates 28% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 78 away

creates per match

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
1.98
Elana Toruń
1.55

allows per match

Zawisza Bydgoszcz
0.99
Elana Toruń
1.27

finishing

Zawisza Bydgoszcz+0.00on par
Elana Toruń+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zawisza Bydgoszcz ↓

Elana Toruń →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Zawisza Bydgoszcz or draw
70%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz or Elana Toruń
76%
Draw or Elana Toruń
54%

Winning margin

Zawisza Bydgoszcz wins by 2+
24%
Elana Toruń wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Zawisza Bydgoszcz 1+ goals
80%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz 2+ goals
48%
Zawisza Bydgoszcz 3+ goals
22%
Elana Toruń 1+ goals
72%
Elana Toruń 2+ goals
36%
Elana Toruń 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Zawisza Bydgoszcz (draw refunded)
61%
Elana Toruń (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zawisza Bydgoszcz at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.99 · 84 matches

Elana Toruń away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.27 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zawisza Bydgoszcz attack 1.98 + Elana Toruń defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.63

Elana Toruń attack 1.55 + Zawisza Bydgoszcz defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zawisza Bydgoszcz scores more
46%
level
24%
Elana Toruń scores more
30%

Zawisza Bydgoszcz at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Zawisza Bydgoszcz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Zawisza Bydgoszcz vs Elana Toruń

Zawisza Bydgoszcz and Elana Toruń drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion im. Zdzisława Krzyszkowiaka in Bydgoszcz.