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Žarnovica vs Oravské Veselé — 3. liga - Center 2020

Žarnovica
Žarnovica
FT
0 – 2
Oravské Veselé
Oravské Veselé
10/24/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 13Futbalový štadión MFK Nová Baňa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Žarnovica30%
×Draw24%
Oravské Veselé46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žarnovica
1.28
Oravské Veselé
1.63

Oravské Veselé creates 27% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 35 away

creates per match

Žarnovica
1.36
Oravské Veselé
1.34

allows per match

Žarnovica
1.91
Oravské Veselé
1.20

finishing

Žarnovica+0.00on par
Oravské Veselé+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žarnovica ↓

Oravské Veselé →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Žarnovica or draw
54%
Žarnovica or Oravské Veselé
76%
Draw or Oravské Veselé
70%

Winning margin

Žarnovica wins by 2+
13%
Oravské Veselé wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Žarnovica 1+ goals
72%
Žarnovica 2+ goals
37%
Žarnovica 3+ goals
14%
Oravské Veselé 1+ goals
80%
Oravské Veselé 2+ goals
48%
Oravské Veselé 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Žarnovica (draw refunded)
40%
Oravské Veselé (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žarnovica at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

Oravské Veselé away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.20 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žarnovica attack 1.36 + Oravské Veselé defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.28

Oravské Veselé attack 1.34 + Žarnovica defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Žarnovica scores more
30%
level
24%
Oravské Veselé scores more
46%

Oravské Veselé at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Oravské Veselé will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Žarnovica 0–2 Oravské Veselé

Oravské Veselé beat Žarnovica 2-0 in 3. liga - Center on October 24, 2021.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MFK Nová Baňa in Nová Baňa.