Žarnovica 1–3 Novohrad Lučenec: Result & Stats

Žarnovica

FT

1 – 3

Novohrad Lučenec

9/5/2021

3. liga - Center · Center - 6Futbalový štadión MFK Nová Baňa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Žarnovica39%

×Draw23%

Novohrad Lučenec39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŽarnovicaExpected goals in this matchNovohrad Lučenec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

Žarnovica

1.69

Novohrad Lučenec

1.69

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 36 away

1.36

creates per match

1.47

1.91

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Žarnovica

1.36

Novohrad Lučenec

1.47

allows per match

Žarnovica

1.91

Novohrad Lučenec

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Žarnovica+0.00on par

Novohrad Lučenec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žarnovica ↓

Novohrad Lučenec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Žarnovica or draw

61%

Žarnovica or Novohrad Lučenec

77%

Draw or Novohrad Lučenec

61%

Winning margin

Žarnovica wins by 2+

20%

Novohrad Lučenec wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Žarnovica 1+ goals

82%

Žarnovica 2+ goals

50%

Žarnovica 3+ goals

24%

Novohrad Lučenec 1+ goals

82%

Novohrad Lučenec 2+ goals

50%

Novohrad Lučenec 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Žarnovica (draw refunded)

50%

Novohrad Lučenec (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žarnovica at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

Novohrad Lučenec away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žarnovica attack 1.36 + Novohrad Lučenec defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.69

Novohrad Lučenec attack 1.47 + Žarnovica defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Žarnovica scores more

39%

level

23%

Novohrad Lučenec scores more

39%

Žarnovica at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Žarnovica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff