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Žarnovica vs Námestovo — 3. liga - Center 2020

Žarnovica
Žarnovica
CANC
14:00
Námestovo
Námestovo
3/28/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 16Futbalový štadión MFK Nová Baňa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Žarnovica24%
×Draw22%
Námestovo55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žarnovica
1.25
Námestovo
2.00

Námestovo creates 60% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 20 away

creates per match

Žarnovica
1.36
Námestovo
2.10

allows per match

Žarnovica
1.91
Námestovo
1.15

finishing

Žarnovica+0.00on par
Námestovo+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žarnovica ↓

Námestovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–28%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Žarnovica or draw
45%
Žarnovica or Námestovo
78%
Draw or Námestovo
76%

Winning margin

Žarnovica wins by 2+
10%
Námestovo wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Žarnovica 1+ goals
71%
Žarnovica 2+ goals
36%
Žarnovica 3+ goals
13%
Námestovo 1+ goals
86%
Námestovo 2+ goals
59%
Námestovo 3+ goals
32%

Draw no bet

Žarnovica (draw refunded)
30%
Námestovo (draw refunded)
70%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žarnovica at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

Námestovo away — creates 2.10, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žarnovica attack 1.36 + Námestovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.25

Námestovo attack 2.10 + Žarnovica defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Žarnovica scores more
24%
level
22%
Námestovo scores more
55%

Námestovo at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Námestovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Žarnovica host Námestovo

March 28, 2021: Žarnovica take on Námestovo in 3. liga - Center. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Žarnovica host Námestovo at Futbalový štadión MFK Nová Baňa.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.