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Žarnovica vs Jednota Bánová — 3. liga - Center 2020

Žarnovica
Žarnovica
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Jednota Bánová
Jednota Bánová
3/27/20223. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 16Futbalový štadión MFK Nová Baňa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Žarnovica37%
×Draw23%
Jednota Bánová40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Žarnovica
1.58
Jednota Bánová
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 35 away

creates per match

Žarnovica
1.36
Jednota Bánová
1.40

allows per match

Žarnovica
1.91
Jednota Bánová
1.80

finishing

Žarnovica+0.00on par
Jednota Bánová+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žarnovica ↓

Jednota Bánová →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Žarnovica or draw
60%
Žarnovica or Jednota Bánová
77%
Draw or Jednota Bánová
63%

Winning margin

Žarnovica wins by 2+
18%
Jednota Bánová wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Žarnovica 1+ goals
79%
Žarnovica 2+ goals
47%
Žarnovica 3+ goals
21%
Jednota Bánová 1+ goals
81%
Jednota Bánová 2+ goals
49%
Jednota Bánová 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Žarnovica (draw refunded)
48%
Jednota Bánová (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žarnovica at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

Jednota Bánová away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.80 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žarnovica attack 1.36 + Jednota Bánová defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.58

Jednota Bánová attack 1.40 + Žarnovica defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Žarnovica scores more
37%
level
23%
Jednota Bánová scores more
40%

Jednota Bánová at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Jednota Bánová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - Center: Žarnovica 2–3 Jednota Bánová

Jednota Bánová beat Žarnovica 3-2 in 3. liga - Center on March 27, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión MFK Nová Baňa in Nová Baňa.