Žarnovica 2–4 Dolný Kubín: Result & Stats

Žarnovica

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 3

Dolný Kubín

4/10/2022

3. liga - Center · Center - 18Futbalový štadión MFK Nová Baňa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Žarnovica35%

×Draw22%

Dolný Kubín44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ŽarnovicaExpected goals in this matchDolný Kubín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.94

Žarnovica

1.71

Dolný Kubín

1.94

Dolný Kubín creates 13% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 28 away

1.36

creates per match

1.96

1.91

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Žarnovica

1.36

Dolný Kubín

1.96

allows per match

Žarnovica

1.91

Dolný Kubín

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Žarnovica+0.00on par

Dolný Kubín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Žarnovica ↓

Dolný Kubín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Žarnovica or draw

56%

Žarnovica or Dolný Kubín

78%

Draw or Dolný Kubín

65%

Winning margin

Žarnovica wins by 2+

17%

Dolný Kubín wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Žarnovica 1+ goals

82%

Žarnovica 2+ goals

51%

Žarnovica 3+ goals

24%

Dolný Kubín 1+ goals

86%

Dolný Kubín 2+ goals

58%

Dolný Kubín 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Žarnovica (draw refunded)

44%

Dolný Kubín (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Žarnovica at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.91 · 22 matches

Dolný Kubín away — creates 1.96, concedes 2.07 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Žarnovica attack 1.36 + Dolný Kubín defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.71

Dolný Kubín attack 1.96 + Žarnovica defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Žarnovica scores more

35%

level

22%

Dolný Kubín scores more

44%

Dolný Kubín at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Dolný Kubín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff