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Zarkovo vs TSC Backa Topola — Prva Liga 2018

Zarkovo
Zarkovo
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
TSC Backa Topola
TSC Backa Topola
9/3/2018Prva LigaPrva Liga · Round 5Stadion Žarkovo (Beograd)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Zarkovo27%
×Draw27%
TSC Backa Topola46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Zarkovo
1.00
TSC Backa Topola
1.41

TSC Backa Topola creates 41% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 18 away

creates per match

Zarkovo
1.10
TSC Backa Topola
1.89

allows per match

Zarkovo
0.93
TSC Backa Topola
0.89

finishing

Zarkovo+0.00on par
TSC Backa Topola+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zarkovo ↓

TSC Backa Topola →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–113%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Zarkovo or draw
54%
Zarkovo or TSC Backa Topola
73%
Draw or TSC Backa Topola
73%

Winning margin

Zarkovo wins by 2+
10%
TSC Backa Topola wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Zarkovo 1+ goals
63%
Zarkovo 2+ goals
26%
Zarkovo 3+ goals
8%
TSC Backa Topola 1+ goals
76%
TSC Backa Topola 2+ goals
41%
TSC Backa Topola 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Zarkovo (draw refunded)
37%
TSC Backa Topola (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zarkovo at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 69 matches

TSC Backa Topola away — creates 1.89, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zarkovo attack 1.10 + TSC Backa Topola defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.00

TSC Backa Topola attack 1.89 + Zarkovo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Zarkovo scores more
27%
level
27%
TSC Backa Topola scores more
46%

TSC Backa Topola at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "TSC Backa Topola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Prva Liga: Zarkovo 0–0 TSC Backa Topola

Zarkovo and TSC Backa Topola drew 0-0 in Prva Liga on September 3, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Žarkovo (Beograd).