Zarkovo 2–1 Timok Zaječar: Result & Stats

Zarkovo

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Timok Zaječar

10/10/2021

Prva Liga · Round 12Stadion Žarkovo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Zarkovo48%

×Draw28%

Timok Zaječar25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ZarkovoExpected goals in this matchTimok Zaječar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.36

0.89

Zarkovo

1.36

Timok Zaječar

0.89

Zarkovo creates 53% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 19 away

1.10

creates per match

0.84

0.93

allows per match

1.63

creates per match

Zarkovo

1.10

Timok Zaječar

0.84

allows per match

Zarkovo

0.93

Timok Zaječar

1.63

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Zarkovo+0.00on par

Timok Zaječar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Zarkovo ↓

Timok Zaječar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–19%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Zarkovo or draw

75%

Zarkovo or Timok Zaječar

72%

Draw or Timok Zaječar

52%

Winning margin

Zarkovo wins by 2+

23%

Timok Zaječar wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Zarkovo 1+ goals

74%

Zarkovo 2+ goals

39%

Zarkovo 3+ goals

16%

Timok Zaječar 1+ goals

59%

Timok Zaječar 2+ goals

22%

Timok Zaječar 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Zarkovo (draw refunded)

66%

Timok Zaječar (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Zarkovo at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.93 · 69 matches

Timok Zaječar away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.63 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Zarkovo attack 1.10 + Timok Zaječar defence 1.63 → ÷2 → 1.36

Timok Zaječar attack 0.84 + Zarkovo defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Zarkovo scores more

48%

level

28%

Timok Zaječar scores more

25%

Zarkovo at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Zarkovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff